Estrangulamento da dívida externa e crescimento econômico na América Latina : lições da década de 80

Abstract

Este artigo tem por objetivo testar empiricamente a hipótese do estrangulamento da dívida externa para os países latino-americanos. Inicia- se com uma breve apresentação da situação em que se encontravam as economias desses países após a declaração da moratória unilateral mexicana em 1982, bem como do seu desempenho em termo de crescimento econômico no restante da década de 80. Em seguida, apresentamos os fundamentos teóricos que constituem a base para o presente trabalho. Finalmente, realizamos uma análise econométrica utilizando dados em painel para os períodos 1973-1980 e 1981 -1989, que apontam os seguintes resultados: (1) não existe uma relação precisa enti'e estoque de dívida externa e crescimento econômico; (2) existe uma relação negativa estatisticamente significativa entre estrangulamento da dívida externa e o crescimento econômico, o que explica o desempenho das economias latinoamericanas ao longo dos anos 80.

This paper aims at testing empirically the debt overhang hypothesis for the Latin American countries. It begins with a brief presentation about the situation in which the mentioned countries were found after the mexican moratorium in 1982, as well as about their performance concerning economic gr'owth for the rest of the decade. Following that we present the theoretical background which constitutes the basis to the present work. Finally, we run an econometric model using panel data for the 1973-1980 and 1981-1989 periods, which yields the following results: (1) there is not a precise relationship between external debt and economic growth; (2) there is a statistically significant negative relationship between debt overhang and economic growth, which explains the latin american economies' peifoimance throughout the eighties.

This paper aims at testing empirically the debt overhang hypothesis for the Latin American countries. It begins with a brief presentation about the situation in which the mentioned countries were found after the mexican moratorium in 1982, as well as about their performance concerning economic gr'owth for the rest of the decade. Following that we present the theoretical background which constitutes the basis to the present work. Finally, we run an econometric model using panel data for the 1973-1980 and 1981-1989 periods, which yields the following results: (1) there is not a precise relationship between external debt and economic growth; (2) there is a statistically significant negative relationship between debt overhang and economic growth, which explains the latin american economies' peifoimance throughout the eighties.