Childhood individual and family modifable risk factors for criminal conviction : a 7-year cohort study from Brazil

Abstract

Crime is a major public problem in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and its preventive measures could have great social impact. The extent to which multiple modifable risk factors among children and families infuence juvenile criminal conviction in an LMIC remains unexplored; however, it is necessary to identify prevention targets. This study examined the association between 22 modifable individual and family exposures assessed in childhood (5–14 years, n= 2511) and criminal conviction at a 7-year follow-up (13–21 years, n= 1905, 76% retention rate) in a cohort of young people in Brazil. Population attributable risk fraction (PARF) was computed for signifcant risk factors. Criminal convictions were reported for 81 (4.3%) youths. Although most children living in poverty did not present criminal conviction (89%), poverty at baseline was the only modifable risk factor signifcantly associated with crime (OR 4.14, 99.8% CI 1.38–12.46) with a PARF of 22.5% (95% CI 5.9–36.1%). It suggests that preventing children’s exposure to poverty would reduce nearly a quarter of subsequent criminal convictions. These fndings highlight the importance of poverty in criminal conviction, as it includes several deprivations and suggest that poverty eradication interventions during childhood may be crucial for reducing crime among Brazilian youth.